Members of ILWU Local 26, the union that supplies security watchmen to marine terminals at Los Angeles and Long Beach, have voted to authorise a strike1. The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which bargains for terminal employers, confirmed the authorisation to FreightWaves on 28 October1. A walkout could begin at 5 pm Pacific time on Sunday, 1 November1.
The previous contract expired in July 2025 and the watchmen have worked under extensions since; the latest runs out on 1 November1. Negotiations have lasted more than a year and now include the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service1, 2. PMA says significant differences remain, and that its offer includes wage increases and pension improvements. Local 26 has not detailed its demands1, 2.
About 250 workers are involved, roughly 2% of the ILWU workforce at the two ports1. PMA says the terminals where they work handle about 85% of Long Beach's cargo and 33% of Los Angeles' cargo1, 2.
What a walkout would stop
Local 26 covers security staff and watchmen who carry out duties at marine terminals, including gate and cargo watch operations2. PMA expects other ILWU members not to cross Local 26 picket lines, which could halt vessel, yard and gate work at the affected terminals1, 2.
The union's strike notice names eight terminal locations: APM Terminals, Long Beach Container Terminal, Total Terminals International, SSA at C-60, A-90 and LB 206, Pacific Container Terminal and OH 552. PMA says six container terminals employ Local 26 watchmen2. The Maritime Executive reported that a walkout could affect about half of the facilities at the two ports5.
Local 26 President Luisa Gratz told other maritime unions on 23 October that "nothing of value has resulted from the Union's commitment to bargaining in good faith with our employers and PMA"2. PMA said it will "continue to negotiate in good faith through the November 1 deadline and beyond if necessary"1. PMA's statements have focused on reaching a deal and did not describe any contingency plans1, 2.
Asia-US rates at a 2026 high, India lanes easing
In its weekly update published on 29 October, Freightos put Asia to US west coast rates up 3% at $8,368 per FEU3. Rates to the US east coast rose 9% to $10,565 per FEU, a new high for the year3. Drewry's World Container Index for 22 October had Shanghai to Los Angeles at $8,007 per FEU, up 2%, and Shanghai to New York at $10,166, up 1%6. Xeneta measured $8,311 to the west coast and $11,525 to the east coast in the week to 23 October, both 0.2% higher7.
Xeneta said west coast rates are 18.9% above the 1 July level and 342% above Xeneta's 28 February benchmark, set before the Hormuz crisis7. East coast rates are 31.7% and 335% higher on the same comparisons7.
The outlook is disputed. Freightos said transpacific prices rose despite expectations of a fall after Golden Week3. Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said: "This confirms the U.S. trades have peaked and we expect them to soften through the remainder of 2026"7. Some forwarders report space becoming more available on the transpacific3.
Indian cargo is priced on its own curve. JOC reported that India to US east coast spot rates fell by up to $3,000 per FEU in two to three weeks as bookings slowed4. Maersk's peak season surcharge for the Indian subcontinent took effect on 23 October. It is $3,400 per container to the US and Canada west coast, $5,150 from northwest India, Nepal and Bhutan to the east and Gulf coasts, and $5,700 to Houston8.
What a stopped box costs
Demurrage accrues when a container exceeds free time on a marine terminal, and detention is charged for extended use of equipment, the US Federal Maritime Commission says9. The FMC publishes carrier-reported billing totals rather than per-box rates9. Its billing rule, effective from 28 May 2024, restricts who may be invoiced and gives the billed party at least 30 days to request a waiver, refund or reduction10.
The ports were slow before any strike. On 26 October, 35,688 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains11. Average rail dwell rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 days in August, and truck dwell to 3.18 days from 2.95 days11.
Retail timing is the sharpest cost. FreightWaves reported that holiday merchandise was still moving through the ports, and that delays raised concerns about its onward movement to the eastern United States1. Air freight is the usual fix for a missed window; rates from China to North America were $7.13 per kg last week, up 4%3.
Where the cargo can go
For Indian exporters, the alternative is the US east coast, where spot rates are falling4. The surcharge gap is real: Maersk's surcharge to the east and Gulf coasts is $5,150 per container from northwest India against $3,400 to the west coast8.
The Suez return helps those routings. Alphaliner found 63% of Far East to Europe capacity is back through the Red Sea, with 24 of 46 direct services transiting12. ZIM has resumed Red Sea routing on its joint Asia to US east coast service with MSC3. Shorter transits add effective capacity and cut fuel burn; Singapore VLSFO was $881 per tonne, up 97% year on year12.
Inside Southern California, the strike notice names eight locations rather than the whole port complex2. Truck-destined containers were moving relatively normally compared with rail-bound boxes, FreightWaves reported11.
What to watch
First, whether Local 26 calls the strike when the extension lapses, and whether other unions honour the lines1, 2. PMA says it will keep talking past the deadline1.
Second, the first week of November rate prints. Freightos said daily east coast prices had eased by 29 October but were still about $200 per FEU above the week before3. The National Retail Federation expects volumes at major US container ports to fall to 2 million TEU in November from 2.25 million in October2.
Third, rail dwell and the on-dock backlog, which decide how fast a short stoppage clears11. Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka said westbound train assets had risen six, eight and tenfold in three weeks, and that the ports had corrected course quickly11. On policy, US port call fees on China-linked vessels are still due on 10 November, though the US Trade Representative has asked for comments on delaying them to January3.