Container lines are moving back to the Suez Canal in stages, and the pace picked up in October. In the week to 18 October, 55 containerships transited the canal in either direction, 120% more than in the same week of 2025, according to Drewry's Red Sea Diversion Tracker1. The average over the latest three weeks was 57 transits, 36% higher than in the previous three weeks1.
Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 2.19m teu passing through the canal in September, the most since the Houthi campaign began4. Linerlytica expects carriers to be fully back on the Suez route in the first quarter of 20274.
Carriers are confirming the shift in public. Hapag-Lloyd told the Suez Canal Authority on 21 October that it expects more of its services to resume Suez transits, joining two Asia services that already use the canal5, 6. Maersk expects all its services to return by March 2027, an expectation the canal authority reported rather than a confirmed schedule7. MSC and Zim have moved their joint Asia to US East Coast service from the Cape of Good Hope route back to Suez8. Gemini plans another Suez service, the AE18 for Maersk and SE5 for Hapag-Lloyd, with a first sailing from Shanghai on 22 November9.
The transit time maths
Drewry puts a Suez round voyage at 21,878 nautical miles and 97 days, against 29,711 nautical miles and 124 days via the Cape of Good Hope. That saves 7,833 nautical miles and 27 days3. For a 24,000 TEU ship, Drewry estimates the Suez routing saves about $1 million per round voyage, or roughly $43 per slot, before extra war-risk insurance costs3.
Indian cargo is already seeing part of that. Chennai to Rotterdam now takes 23 to 24 days, against 34 to 36 days via the Cape, according to Ramu Shanmugam, chief executive of Clothing Connections and chairman of the IT wing subcommittee of the Tiruppur Exporters' Association3. Quotes from Tuticorin to Antwerp and Rotterdam have fallen to $2,350 to $2,450 per 40-foot container, against $6,100 to $7,000 at the July peak3.
The switch is not uniform. Alphaliner found services that transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait outbound to Europe but sail back around the Cape2. The carrier statements and surveys cited here name Far East-Europe and Asia-US East Coast services, not India-Europe strings5, 8, 2. No announced re-routing reviewed here is India-specific; the gain for Indian shippers shows up in port pairs such as Chennai to Rotterdam3.
Capacity arithmetic for 2027
Alphaliner reckons 63% of the capacity deployed between the Far East and Europe has returned to the Red Sea, with vessels on 24 of the 46 direct services transiting Suez2. MSC moves 2.2m teu over 11 loops through the canal, the Gemini partners 1.76m teu and Cosco/OOCL 1.27m teu after restoring six services2.
Absolute volumes are still below 2023. Weekly container capacity through Suez averaged 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, against 1.457m TEU in the same period of 2023, according to Clarksons Research3. Analyst Lars Jensen put the market as a whole at roughly 30% to 35% of normal, with the recovery further along on backhaul than on headhaul voyages9.
The extra capacity has not pushed spot rates down yet. Xeneta put Far East to North Europe spot rates at $3,698 per FEU on 23 October, up 6.8% on the week and 33.2% below 1 July, and cited strong demand as the reason10.
A shorter round trip releases effective tonnage without a single new ship. Freightos says a completed Red Sea return raises the risk of overcapacity for carriers in 202711. FreightWaves says shorter voyages add to excess supply risk in 2027 if demand does not keep pace9. Demand has been the counterweight: volumes from Asia to Europe rose 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026, according to Xeneta10.
That is why the 2027 contract round is a timing decision. Gemini expects nearly all its services back on Suez in the first quarter of 2027, provided conditions do not change, chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said9. Hambantota International Port Group is targeting 2m TEU of annual container capacity in the first quarter of 2027 after committing US$149m to new equipment12. It says a sustained Suez recovery could make the port more attractive to lines running between Asia and Europe12.
Costs that should fall, and what does not
Drewry's saving of about $43 per slot excludes extra war-risk insurance3. The London marine insurance market lists areas as high risk, and in September it widened the area listed in the Black Sea13.
Surcharges tend to move on fixed dates. MSC will charge an Emergency Operations Surcharge from 1 November on cargo from Greece, Turkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to north Europe14. The charge is US$200, euro 200 or pounds 200 per container, based on the bill of lading date14.
In India, the government has extended the RELIEF scheme to 31 March 2027. Eligible exporters get 95% risk cover and protection against insurance premium increases beyond pre-disruption levels15.
What could reverse it
The return is happening while the Saudi-Houthi conflict widens. Seatrade Maritime reported that the accelerating return is raising industry concerns about crew and cargo safety16. Rystad Energy notes that the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi vessels on 20 July. Weekly Bab al-Mandab transits fell from 354 to 269 in the first week of the embargo, it says, and the Houthis reportedly took control of Perim Island in mid-September, which would let them threaten the narrow lanes17. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted five drones on 21 October18.
Hormuz is the second risk. Iranian attacks rose as transits recovered, and Freightos reported on 21 October that an Iranian projectile had sunk a Dubai-linked container vessel the week before11.
The Black Sea is the third. Eight cargo ships were hit off Romania and Bulgaria in three weeks, with about 34 sailors reported dead or missing13.
For 2027 contracts, that argues for clauses that name the route rather than assume it. Buyers can ask for a Suez transit time with a stated tolerance. They can also ask for a notice period before a service switches back to the Cape, and a surcharge clause tied to a named trigger and review date. A nominated alternative discharge port covers the case where a service is re-routed mid-contract.