Average airfreight rates from Hong Kong to North America closed October at $8.17 per kg. The rate rose from $7.16 per kg at the start of the month and ended 38.7% higher than a year earlier, TAC Index data reported by Air Cargo News show1.
October averaged $7.64 per kg, 34% above a year earlier and ahead of September's $7.02 per kg1.
| Measure | Period | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong to North America, TAC average (spot and contract) | Start of October | $7.16/kg | |
| Hong Kong to North America, TAC average | End of October | $8.17/kg | 38.7% higher than a year earlier1 |
| Hong Kong to North America, October average | October 2026 | $7.64/kg | 34% higher year on year; September was $7.02/kg1 |
| Hong Kong to Europe, October average | October 2026 | $5.31/kg | 15.7% higher year on year; September was $4.80/kg1 |
| Brent crude spot | 27 October 2026 | $123.10 a barrel | 87.9% higher than a year earlier4 |
Demand leads, ocean diversion does not
Demand and fuel are the main forces behind the rise, with AI and data-centre shipments strong1. A large switch from ocean to air is not among them, according to DSV1, 2.
IATA data show Asia to North America volumes were up 17% year on year in September1.
Asia to Europe is weaker. Volumes on the lane were 16% below a year earlier in the week to 18 October, and rates rose 1% week on week5, 6. The EU's €3 charge on parcels worth less than €150, plus a €2 handling charge due on 1 November, has curbed e-commerce volumes1, 5.
Ocean spot rates are falling as the container peak ends. Drewry's World Container Index showed Shanghai to Los Angeles down 6% week on week at $7,514 per 40ft, The Loadstar reported on 30 October7. Freight Right, a US west coast forwarder, said remaining urgent pre-holiday shipments were moving to air7.
DSV's head of global airfreight, Achim Martinka, said that flow is limited. "Most of the customers still stay on the seafreight side because they are not used to having shipments on time anyway," he said at TIACA's Air Cargo Forum in Miami2. He said switching to air "could be up to 20 times more expensive"2.
Fuel sets a floor under rates
Jet fuel is the main cost pressure. IATA and Platts data show jet fuel prices were 118.5% higher than a year earlier in the week ending 23 October1. Fuel makes up around one third of an airline's costs1. Brent crude spot was $123.10 a barrel on 27 October, up 87.9% on a year earlier4.
Rotate, a data firm, said fuel prices were up 111% year on year in the final week of September while global air cargo yields rose 26%8.
TAC expects more increases. It said "pressure for rates to rise further is still very much increasing" as peak season continues1.
Surcharges rise and capacity stays tight
Carriers lifted per-kg charges. Air Canada Cargo's airfreight carrier surcharge rose on 26 October, to 19p per kg from 15p for UK-origin shipments to Canada and the US North-east and Midwest3. On other long-haul routes the charge went to 36p per kg from 29p3. MSC Air Cargo lifted its charge to $2.30 or €2.30 per chargeable kg, from $1.70 or €1.70, on 16 October3. JAL's Japan-origin long-haul fuel surcharge rose to ¥192 per kg from ¥1853.
Capacity is being added, but slowly. JAL began a twice-weekly Narita to Los Angeles 747 freighter codeshare with Atlas Air on 2 October3. Cathay Cargo has also added Americas freighter capacity for the peak3. Atlas Air's Martin Drew said the company has "a pipeline today of business that is tens of aircraft, and we can't service that demand"2.
Aircraft costs limit how fast capacity can grow. Lease rates for older Boeing 777-300ERs, candidates for freighter conversion, have risen $200,000 a month in the last two years, mBa Aviation said9.
TAC's figures cover Hong Kong origin, so they do not give India outbound rates. Challenge Group will start a twice-weekly 777 freighter loop from Navi Mumbai to Liège and Chicago Rockford on 4 November, mainly for pharmaceuticals and outsize cargo10.
What to watch
Watch weekly TAC prints for early November, jet fuel prices and new surcharge notices. Rotate expects global air cargo demand to grow 3.1% year on year in the fourth quarter8.