Lunar New Year 2027 falls on 6 February: the cut-offs buyers need

Some Chinese factories will begin their Lunar New Year shutdown earlier in 2027, according to Seko Logistics. Lunar New Year's Day falls on 6 February, according to Hong Kong's gazetted general holidays for the year¹. In 2026 the same holiday fell on 17 February², so the holiday arrives 11 days earlier, as Seko noted on 28 October³.

For buyers, that means the production and sailing window before the holiday is shorter. Seko said the weeks before Lunar New Year are the busiest of the year for China's exports³. It advises shippers to bring purchase orders forward and confirm ocean bookings at least four weeks before shipment³.

The dates to put into purchase orders

| Milestone | Date | Basis | | Lunar New Year's Day 2027 | 6 February | Hong Kong gazetted holiday¹ | | Lunar New Year's Day 2026, for comparison | 17 February | Hong Kong gazetted holiday² | | Shutdown for factories Seko works with in northern China | 25 January to 15 February | Seko China office³ | | Some southern China plants | Shut three weeks before the holiday, full output a fortnight after | Seko China office³ | | Lantern Festival, end of festivities | 20 February | Seko China office³ | | Latest ocean booking | Four weeks before sailing | Seko³ |

Few factories have formally announced their 2027 holiday schedules, Seko's China office said. The shutdown pattern it describes varies by region³. It added that local practice often sees plants stop up to a week before the Spring Festival and not fully resume until after the Lantern Festival³.

A blank sailing is a weekly departure that a carrier cancels, usually because it expects too little cargo. Carriers typically add blank sailings around Lunar New Year, while exporters concentrate shipments into the weeks just before the holiday³.

Work backwards from the sailing

Start with the vessel departure you need, not with the holiday. Seko recommends booking at least four weeks ahead, with time built in for factory completion, origin collection and port delivery³. Dan Eckett, its client solutions group director for the UK and Ireland, said shippers should add one to two weeks to transit plans. He said supplier bookings should be confirmed well before the three-week mark³.

That puts the booking deadline for the last pre-holiday sailings in early January. Buyers who wait until the usual calendar position, four weeks before a mid-February holiday, will be looking for space in the week Chinese factories are already closing.

Seko's managing director for the UK and Ireland, Paul Lockwood, said customers are already pulling ex-factory dates forward. One had raised its purchase order three weeks earlier than usual to avoid being at the back of the production queue³.

A confirmed booking is not a guaranteed sailing. Sea-Intelligence found that vessel bunching this year produced double sailings. In those weeks, a delayed ship departs alongside the next scheduled one. The consultancy said this pushed deployed capacity on the main east-west trades to record levels during Golden Week⁶. If a week is skipped or two departures merge, cargo can miss the pre-holiday window⁶.

Why the buffer needs to be bigger this year

Sea-Intelligence analysis cited by Seko found vessel delays had absorbed around 3m teu of global container capacity, equal to 8.5% of the total, against a 2011 to 2019 average of 2.2%³.

Linerlytica said North Asia accounts for 35% of global port congestion. It said ports across South-east and South Asia remain under pressure from vessel bunching, made worse as services return to the Suez Canal⁷. At Jawaharlal Nehru Port, average vessel waiting time fell to 24 hours in week 41 from 42 hours a week earlier⁵. Maersk said East China port conditions have improved, but strong export demand is still pressing congested ports and customers may see intermittent delays⁸.

What you are locking in

Spot rates on China to India are easing. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index put Shanghai to Nhava Sheva at $3,370 per 40ft on 15 October, down 11%⁵. The Loadstar's rate data showed a 40ft box from Shanghai to JNPA at about $3,200, against about $3,800 a month earlier⁴. Both are spot rate indications, not contract levels.

Linerlytica said carriers' planned 1 November general rate increase is "effectively doomed" as the winter slack season starts. It said the largest lines are undercutting each other, and that weekly capacity from the Far East to North Europe is expected to reach a record⁷. Those comments cover the Asia to North Europe trade, not China to India. On the India trade, the case for locking in rests on rates that are already lower than a month ago⁴.

Air is the costly fallback. TAC data in the Baltic Air Freight Index shows global rates about 26% higher than a year earlier. They are above the highs of the previous two peak seasons, and jet fuel prices are up 113% year on year, according to IATA⁹. Seko called airfreight and sea-air services viable but economically questionable³.

Extra lead times some buyers must plan for

China's export controls add delay of their own. From 18 November, exporters of tunnel boring machines, walking excavators, plateau-type wet shotcrete machines and specified dredger parts need licences from China's commerce ministry. Shipments are not released while customs verifies declarations¹⁰. Tunnel boring machines go into Indian metro, rail and tunnel projects¹⁰.

China's commerce ministry has also proposed export controls on 12 next-generation solar technologies, with partial restrictions on some cell technologies and complete bans on advanced equipment for wafers and polysilicon¹¹. Anujesh Dwivedi of Deloitte India said equipment lead times may lengthen¹¹.

Watch carrier advisories for December and January. Hapag-Lloyd has already published four sailing omissions on its Atlantic loops for December 2026 and January 2027 and told customers the changes may affect cargo planning and transit times¹². The notice covers Atlantic services, not Asia-India, but it shows carriers are already reshaping holiday schedules. Indian buyers should ask for the December and January proforma schedules, and the weeks their carrier plans to blank, before confirming bookings.