India's private-sector activity grew at its fastest pace in four months in October, and the survey's price detail offered purchasing teams some relief. The HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 56.7 from 55.9 in September1. Any reading above 50 means expansion1.
HSBC released the advance figures on 23 October, based on around 400 manufacturers and 400 service providers. Final October readings are due in early November1.
| Index (October flash) | October | September |
|---|---|---|
| Composite output | 56.7 | 55.9 |
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 55.1 |
| Manufacturing output | 57.6 | 57.5 |
| Services business activity | 56.2 | 55.2 |
Cheaper inputs, faster deliveries
Input-cost inflation eased for a seventh consecutive month to its lowest level in almost a year1. Selling-price inflation was the weakest since March 2025, and manufacturers raised prices at the softest pace in almost four years1.
Suppliers' delivery times shortened, and factory stocks of purchases rose at the strongest rate in eight months1. Stocks of finished goods rose at the sharpest rate on record1.
Manufacturing purchasing activity still grew, but at the slowest pace in the expansion that began in July 20211. Firms ordered less aggressively and still added to input stocks as deliveries quickened1. Backlogs of work fell for the third time in four months1.
Services employment was unchanged, ending a nine-month run of hiring, and overall job creation was the weakest so far this year1. New export orders rose at the fastest pace in six months, with the US, UK, Middle East and Bangladesh named, though the gain was concentrated among goods producers1, 3.
HSBC's chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari said manufacturers saw "the fastest increase in new export orders since June 2025"1.
Relief that may not last
Respondents still cited steel and transport as their main input-price pressures1.
| Series | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude spot ($/barrel) | 115.22 on 20 Oct | down 8.4% on the week, up 87.8% in 20264 |
| US on-highway diesel ($/gallon) | 6.276 on 19 Oct | up 1.6% on the week, up 71.2% on a year5 |
| US iron and steel PPI (1982 = 100) | 383.3 in Sept | up 1.5% on the month, up 20.7% on a year6 |
| US long-distance truckload PPI | 219.4 in Sept | up 4.6% on the month, up 17.9% on a year7 |
| Rupee per dollar | 94.82 on 22 Oct | up 0.4% on the day, up 5.5% in 20268 |
The survey window is mid-October, so it may not capture the latest oil move. Brent futures rose about 3% to $112 a barrel on 22 October, a five-month high, after attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz2, 9.
An RBI Monetary Policy Committee member said wholesale input prices have been printing close to 9% year on year. The committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%10.
Flash PMI figures are an advance estimate collected around mid-month and are subject to revision1.
What this means for buyers
Vendors who led their last price revision with steel and transport have less cover now. Input-cost inflation has slowed for seven months, so ask for a line-by-line cost build-up before accepting Q4 or 2027 increases1.
Lock delivery dates and quotes while delivery times are shortening and backlogs are falling. Expect capacity to tighten if orders keep rising at October's pace1.
Watch the final October PMI in early November and the November flash for input costs and delivery times1.