India has opened its sugar season with a projected deficit and a queue of import requests. Dilip Patil of the Indian Federation of Green Energy estimates 2026-27 sugar production at 26 to 27 million tonnes (mt), against consumption of 28.5 to 29 mt1. That is a shortfall of 1.5 to 2.5 mt1. Other stakeholders project 27 to 29 mt, and global analysts 28.4 to 29.5 mt1. Edible oil importers expect to buy more, and poultry, textile and starch groups want imports of soymeal, maize, cotton and starch opened2.
One weather event, five inputs
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology put the weekly relative Nino3.4 index at +2.88°C for the week to 25 October5. That is the highest in its weekly sea surface temperature dataset, which dates from 20085. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also underway, at +0.69°C for that week5.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said El Nino continues to strengthen, with a strong to very strong event likely through January to March 2027 at a greater than 83% chance6. It put the odds of a historic event, stronger than any El Nino since 1950, at 83% for October to December6. The bureau said models expect the warming to peak around November or December, and the center expects El Nino to remain through March to May 20275.
The livestock sector's kharif estimates put maize output at 23.21 mt, down 16.75%, with Maharashtra down 24.22% and Karnataka down 33.37%3. Kharif groundnut output could fall more than 20%, per the Solvent Extractors' Association2. Soybean imports from Africa's least developed countries have already hit a record, and poultry wants soymeal imports to fill the gap2.
What gets more expensive, and when
| Input | What the sources say | Tightest window |
|---|---|---|
| Edible oil | Imports seen at 17.5 mt in 2026-27, up from 16.5 mt, per Sunvin's Sandeep Bajoria2 | Hangs on the mustard crop now being sown2 |
| Sugar | Patil sees production of 26 to 27 mt against demand of 28.5 to 29 mt; ex-mill prices crossing ₹50 a kg1 | June to October 20271 |
| Soymeal and maize | 30 lakh tonnes of soymeal imports sought; maize output down 16.75% at 23.21 mt2, 3. TNAU sees ₹2,700 a quintal at the farm gate in Tamil Nadu7 | Poultry's soymeal import request is still pending2 |
| Cotton | Output likely below 29 million bales against demand above 34 million bales; prices above ₹9,000 per 100 kg4 | The 11% duty waiver ends 31 October4 |
| Starch | Starch makers may need to import more starch from China if more maize goes to ethanol2 | No date given2 |
Sugar has the clearest price path. Patil told the RBI's Inflation Analysis Division that ex-mill prices would soften toward ₹40 to ₹42 a kg1. He expects them to stay near ₹45 through early 2027 and to "potentially cross ₹50" between June and October 20271. Opening stock of 3 mt covers festival demand but leaves little buffer later, he said1. Retail sugar is at ₹58.87 a kg, on Department of Consumer Affairs data1.
The duty window decides who pays
The government extended the validity of duty-free raw sugar import permits to 31 December. A DGFT notification of 20 August allowed 10 lakh tonnes under the tariff rate quota8, 9. The Economic Times, citing industry estimates, reported that about 3 lakh tonnes had been imported9. A BusinessLine industry source said none had, with 3 to 4 lakh tonnes of quota surrendered, a figure not officially confirmed8. The government let two refiners sell 2.65 lt of imported sugar domestically, but they sold less than 60,000 tonnes because import costs were above domestic prices10.
On cotton, the government waived the 11% duty from 1 June to 31 October4. Three government and industry sources said an order extending it to end-December is expected soon, and the finance, commerce and textile ministries did not immediately respond to emailed queries4. Until then, mills importing from 1 November pay the duty.
The asks are separate. Poultry wants 30 lakh tonnes of soybean meal imports2. A sugar industry source told BusinessLine the government should open raw and white sugar imports first-come-first-served while the season runs, instead of leaving them to quota holders1. The Food Ministry has also barred mills from making ethanol from cane juice or B-heavy molasses in 2026-27, and Patil expects sugar diversion to ethanol to be minimal8, 1.
Feed, bakery and the inflation read
Feed is 65 to 70% of poultry production cost, and soymeal and maize are 80% of poultry feed, on industry estimates3, 2.
"If we don't allow imports, then the prices of poultry can go haywire and the farmers will suffer losses," said Divya Kumar Gulati, former president of the Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association2.
Sugar reaches bakeries, beverage makers and confectioners at those prices. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at its 5 to 7 October meeting11. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said weather-related adversities and global oil and commodity prices may keep pushing headline inflation up11. One member, Ram Singh, expects headline CPI to average almost 5.8% over the next three quarters11.
The rupee was at 95.22 to the dollar on 28 October, 7.8% weaker than a year earlier, which adds to the rupee cost of dollar-priced cargoes12.
Tur imports rose 44% to 6.25 lakh tonnes in January to August, India Pulses and Grains Association data show13.
What to watch
Mustard is the first test. Rabi acreage is down 37% from a year earlier, with mustard at 13.10 lakh hectares against 21.03 lakh hectares14. East Rajasthan, a key belt, had a 51% rainfall deficit in October 1 to 2614.
November and December crushing decide the near term. ISMA said 107 mills had started and had produced about 4 lt by late October, against 0.6 lt a year earlier10. November demand is estimated at 23 lt against a carryover of 15 lt, so the government depends on next month's output10. Rain forecast over eastern Uttar Pradesh on 29 and 30 October may delay harvest10.
Then the notifications. The cotton exemption lapses on 31 October unless an order extends it4, and sugar quota permits run to 31 December8.
Beyond India, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, named coffee, palm oil, sugar, rice and maize among crops at drought risk15. It pointed to South East Asia, southern Africa, Central America and northern South America.