India's solar factories can build modules much faster than they can build the cells inside them. China has now proposed curbing exports of the technology needed to close that gap3, 1.
China's commerce ministry (MOFCOM) published a draft plan on Friday, 16 October, to restrict exports of 14 technologies across sectors including photovoltaic solar power2. Mercom India reported that 12 solar manufacturing technologies are on the list, covering polysilicon, silicon wafers and cells, plus core equipment that uses them1.
What is actually proposed
The plan revises China's catalogue of technologies that are banned or restricted from export. It is a draft, open for comment until 15 November 20261. The revised catalogue has not been formally issued1.
Part of the regime is already running. From 16 October, exporters must register with the commerce ministry before sending covered technology abroad1. The requirement also reaches deals already signed but not completed, including licences and transfers of ownership or control1. Exporters must declare the recipient, the destination, the intended use and the estimated value1.
The draft is specific. Mercom reported it would cover technologies for wafers 70 micrometres thick or less1. It also lists edge passivation of cells made on wafers 182 mm to 230 mm a side and 140 micrometres thick or less1. Perovskite-silicon tandem processes at 30% efficiency or more are included too1. For TOPCon cells, it covers deposition and boron diffusion processes above set throughputs. One example is low-pressure chemical vapour deposition at 6,000 G12-equivalent full wafers an hour or more1.
Two of India's largest new cell plants, from Vikram Solar and Premier Energies, are TOPCon lines, the process family that features heavily in the draft5, 6.
Why the module end is exposed
India's capacity is lopsided. Chetan Shah, chairman and managing director of Solex Energy, told PTI that India had about 262 GW of module capacity but only about 37 GW of cell capacity as of June 20263. Ingot-wafer capacity was estimated at 2 GW and polysilicon at nil3. He said most of the installed capacity is old mono-PERC and that several lines are not operating3.
Demand is of a similar order to cell supply. India added 35.2 GW of solar capacity in the first nine months of 2026, according to JMK Research7. Module makers still buy most cells abroad. Vikram Solar said the cell inside most Indian modules is imported, and that cells are the largest component of a module's bill of materials5.
China controls an estimated 75% to 90% of the global solar supply chain, according to Shah3.
Policy has already fixed a deadline. ALMM List-II, which requires cells from approved domestic makers, took effect on 1 June 20264. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy ruled out a blanket extension beyond that date and offered case-by-case relief4. Open access and net metering projects can use imported cells until December 20264.
Shah wants more room. He asked the government to extend ALMM-II by at least 12 months and to cover all types of projects3. He also sought support for domestic output of PV equipment, spares and consumables through a PLI or capital subsidy3.
What it means for a buyer of modules
What is confirmed is a draft list and a registration regime, not a ban with a start date1. The cost is therefore not yet in prices. The exposure is in timing, because the domestic cells that ALMM-II now requires have to come from plants that are still being commissioned4, 5.
Vikram Solar's 9 GW plant at Gangaikondan in Tamil Nadu is due to make its first cells in December 2026, with the rest commissioned in phases5. Premier Energies now has 10.6 GW of cell capacity and 11.1 GW of module capacity6.
Shah described the collision: "On one hand, the industry is gearing up to put up cell manufacturing lines; on the other hand, China's proposal is creating pressure for us"3.
Because cells are the biggest line in a module's bill of materials, a squeeze on cell supply or cell technology reaches module prices first5. Shah said that if domestic cell capacity does not arrive on time, the result could be a supply crunch for modules, project delays and pressure on tariffs3.
The pattern, and what to watch
This is the same instrument China used on construction machinery. MOFCOM said on 19 October that exports of tunnel boring machines, walking excavators and plateau-type wet shotcrete machines would need licences from 18 November2. The difference is that the solar draft targets technology and drawings as much as finished machines1.
Three dates matter. 15 November 2026, when the Chinese comment period closes1. The day the revised catalogue is formally issued1. And December 2026, when the ALMM-II relief for open access and net metering projects lapses4.
The proposal also lands while China's own solar industry is under strain. Its largest manufacturers cut their workforce by 21% last year as effective capacity stayed at about double world demand8.