US truckload contracts are repricing fast, and the carriers that haul them say the increases will continue into 2027. Shippers that re-signed truckload contracts in the past few months are now on base rates roughly 12.8% above the ones they gave up, SONAR's Contract Rate Change Direction index shows. A year earlier the same reading was 4.1%1.
The index, CRCD.USA, read 13.11% on 22 October, up from 3.53% a year earlier5. It compares a new contract base rate with the one it replaced, and counts a change only when the old rate had held for more than 90 days1, 5. It tracks base rates, not spot prices, and excludes fuel.
On Covenant Logistics' third-quarter call on 30 October, CEO David Parker was asked whether 2027 would bring another year of double-digit contract increases. "That's my expectations," he said1. Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller said on 27 October that contract rates are set to rise by no less than the mid-teens in 20272. Werner Enterprises said early bidding could require average double-digit increases, while cautioning that it was too early to forecast the whole year3.
The repricing lands now, not in 2027
Producer prices for long-distance truckload freight rose 4.6% in September from August and were 17.9% higher than a year earlier, at 219.46. Werner said one-way revenue per total mile excluding fuel rose 10% in the third quarter. It guided to a 10% to 13% increase in the fourth7. About 60% of its one-way revenue book renews in the first half of 2027, and management is eyeing double-digit increases on many of those renewals7.
The SONAR index is a seven-day rolling average, so readings move, and it measures only contracts that change5. FreightWaves, which publishes SONAR, said the average increase should moderate as carriers move onto more financially healthy contracts5. TD Cowen and AFS Logistics said truckload rates are on track for their highest in over four years, despite limited demand signals8.
Fuel is a separate line and it flatters the headline
Retail on-highway diesel was $6.352 a gallon in the week to 26 October, 75.5% higher than a year earlier4. Werner said truckload fuel surcharges run on a one-week lag. It said diesel rose 10% sequentially in August and another 15% in September7. Its consolidated revenue rose 23% year on year, largely on higher fuel surcharges7.
Carriers say base rates must cover driver pay, equipment, insurance and other operating costs1. Of an 18-cent hit to Werner's third-quarter earnings per share from sequential cost increases, 12 cents came from fuel and insurance claims7. The contract base rate and the surcharge move for different reasons, so a new all-in quote should be read in two parts.
Capacity is leaving faster than demand is arriving
Covenant cut its average truckload tractor fleet 8.9% year on year, to 2,186 units from 2,4001. Miller said tender rejections are high relative to the last three years while demand is not. He tied the tightening to federal enforcement and the Supreme Court's Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II ruling2. Knight-Swift has cut its approved brokerage carrier pool by about 70% over two years9.
FreightWaves put the national tender rejection rate near 13.9%, with accepted volumes down more than 4% over four weeks to 9,51810. It cited English language proficiency enforcement, stricter rules on non-domiciled commercial driver licences and the removal of close to 2% of carriers with substandard safety scores, according to GenLogs10.
Demand is selective. Parker said technology loads have "just been exploding", helped by equipment for data centres, and that qualified team drivers for high-security freight are getting harder to find1. Covenant expects about 75% to 80% of its expedited trucks to sit under committed capacity agreements by the end of the year, from about 25% at the start of 20261. At the end of September, 58% were already there, against about 40% at the end of June1. Some customers are signing two- to four-year contracts, and Covenant is paid for holding trucks even when they wait1. Specialised operations may run about 3,000 miles a week, against 5,000 in the traditional expedited network1.
What buyers can do before the 2027 bid round
Start early. The first half of 2027 carries a large share of renewals at Werner7. Miller said rates will change more often than shippers are used to, with refused bids returning as mini-bids weeks later2.
Price the commitment. Multiyear capacity deals buy rate certainty but less volume flexibility, and carriers increasingly charge for standing capacity1. Check whether the fuel surcharge table resets weekly or monthly, and which index and lag it uses. Werner's runs one week behind diesel7.
Compare modes. Georgia Ports opened the $134 million Gainesville Inland Port, served by Norfolk Southern trains to Savannah five days a week. It replaces a roughly 600-mile round trip by truck, and the authority expects 26,000 containers to move by rail there in its first year11. Rail capacity has limits of its own: 35,700 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains at Los Angeles and Long Beach on 26 October12. LTL is absorbing some spillover, with Saia's tonnage up 8.9% and XPO's shipments per day up 5.8%13, 14.
The repricing is inside the United States: domestic truckload, dedicated and expedited fleets. Importers meet it on the inland leg from port to warehouse, and exporters selling delivered duty paid carry it themselves15.