Yemen's Houthis said on 27 October that a ballistic missile had hit Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, the biggest in the kingdom2. Military spokesman Yahya Saree said the strike caused a fire at the complex, which also has a crude loading terminal on the Gulf2, 6.
Saudi forces claimed to have intercepted three ballistic missiles and four drones that day, and gave no official confirmation of damage1. The Saudi-led coalition said separately that it destroyed two missiles aimed at Riyadh2, 6. A person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the site had been hit and the fire had been contained, without confirming a strike on the refinery1. NASA satellite heat data indicated a fire at the export terminal, The Maritime Executive reported1. Refinery damage is still unconfirmed.
One terminal, two export corridors
Ras Tanura sits at the centre of Aramco's export system. Its refinery can process 550,000 barrels a day, the largest in the kingdom, and it was shut for a period early in the Iran war as a precaution2. Almost all Saudi crude leaves through two ports, Ras Tanura on the Gulf and Yanbu on the Red Sea, and the Houthis have attacked both before2.
The port complex, which includes the Ju'aymah crude terminal7, is the principal Saudi loading port on the Gulf1. The risk is not only to a refinery. It is to the loading point itself.
India imported 22.26 million tonnes of crude in September, 9% more than a year earlier8. Middle Eastern crude was about 54% of that, up from 32% in August, and regional imports reached about 2.8 million barrels a day, the highest since February3. Russia's share fell to 33.5% from 46.6%3. India imports more than 88% of the crude it uses9.
Gulf supply has held up despite the attacks. Middle East seaborne crude exports returned to pre-war levels by 1 October, and about 40% of the region's crude exports bypassed Hormuz by September, against 17% before the war, according to Kpler data cited by gCaptain4. For India the channel is cost, not lost volume, but it lands on a much larger slice of the country's barrel than it did in August.
Freight already charges for the risk
The loading risk is already in the freight bill. The International Energy Agency put the cost of shipping crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia above $37 a barrel by mid-October4. For a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2 million barrels, the freight bill is more than $74 million a cargo, against less than $15 million before the conflict4.
Vortexa data show Ras Tanura to Ningbo VLCC freight averaged about $12 a barrel above Fujairah to Ningbo in the four weeks to 25 October5. It links that gap to the cost of loading inside the Strait of Hormuz. Loading inside Hormuz is priced $20 to $30 a barrel above the lightering zone outside, according to Sparta's Aaron Kildow10.
Over the same four weeks, the freight premium to Ningbo was $8 a barrel from West Africa, $14.40 from the US Gulf and $16.50 from Guyana, all against Fujairah5. Goldman Sachs put the global average crude freight rate above $20 a barrel, against $3 a year earlier11. It attributed $7 of that increase, a third of the total, to the war risk premium in Hormuz11.
The flat price is not the whole bill
Sparta's Kildow argues the geopolitical premium is now showing up in tanker freight rather than in crude futures10. The December 2026 Brent contract traded about $3 a barrel further above January 2027 than the equivalent spread did a year earlier10. The November to December Dubai spread was $2.30 wider than a year earlier, but four earlier Brent front spreads since the war began were wider still, he said10.
Brent crude futures fell $1.00, or 0.86%, to $114.81 by 1311 GMT on 27 October as traders focused on Middle East peace talks12. UBS expects Brent to stay near $110 a barrel to the end of the year, against an earlier $100 forecast12.
India's import benchmark is the Indian basket, which averaged $120.46 a barrel to 26 October, the highest since March 2012, and stood at $123.72 that day13. Marine insurance premiums and freight are adding to that bill, BusinessLine reported13.
A claim like the Ras Tanura one can move freight and differentials faster than it moves Brent. The change reaches a buyer in the delivered cost of a cargo, not in the screen price.
Diesel and jet fuel are the second channel
If the refinery is damaged, the effect moves into products. The IEA says global diesel and gasoil availability fell 1.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter, against a year earlier9. It fell 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter, and the IEA expects tightness into 20279.
Wholesale diesel traded above $200 a barrel in Singapore in mid-September and reached all-time highs of about $220 in Europe and the US9. The European diesel crack, the premium a refiner earns over crude, was above $74 a barrel on 16 October, below its $98.01 peak on 1 September14. The jet fuel crack was $11.75 a barrel above the diesel crack the same day14.
Product costs fall unevenly across India's fuel chain. LPG under-recoveries for the three state fuel retailers are around ₹62,000 crore, and HPCL and BPCL reported pressure on marketing margins13.
Contracts and the 1 November rule
Equirus Securities said in a review of HPCL's results that almost all cargoes are now bought on a delivered basis, against about half earlier13. Indian Oil plans to slightly reduce the volume of crude it buys under annual deals with Gulf producers in 2027/28, a source familiar with the matter told The Economic Times15.
The Hormuz rules add a second layer. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said it will take legal action from 1 November against all vessels of Sinokor, the world's largest supertanker owner16. Sinokor's ships carried nearly 40% of the crude that left Hormuz last month. The notice warned cargo owners and insurers but did not say what the action would be16. Sinokor did not immediately respond to a request for comment16.
What to watch
Saudi forces have not officially confirmed damage1. The first signals will be a statement from Aramco or the energy ministry and the loading notices for Ras Tanura and Ju'aymah, including any shift of volumes to Yanbu.
For buyers, the first check is contractual: whether a crude or product purchase is FOB or delivered, and whether force majeure and war-risk clauses name Hormuz and the Gulf loading ports. The second is the budget: stress test diesel and ATF at current cracks, not at flat Brent. The third is timing: watch Aramco's loading notices and the 1 November date.